meditation
medotation

BANKRUPT BANKER

European Central Bank had switched to a policy of risk management

Posted by Fraser Trevor Sunday 12 October 2008

European Central Bank had switched to a policy of risk management - specifically, to avoid a financial catastrophe that would wreak significant damage across the 15-country eurozone. "Trichet is a French civil servant . . . One of the pros of these guys is that if they think the greater good surpasses your day-to-day mission, you can look the other way," said Gilles Moec at Bank of America. "But I think it is really a transitory shift."Erik Nielsen at Goldman Sachs described as "breath-taking" the U-turn in ECB thinking since Thursday last week, when after its regular policy meeting it had left interest rates unchanged and Mr Trichet had expressed fears about inflation risks. The ECB, Mr Nielsen suggested, had little choice but to fall into line with action taken by other central banks.There was clumsiness in this week's manoeuvres: some ECB policymakers might have been un-comfortable with Wed-nes-day's statement that seemed to imply inflation dangers had abated in less than a week and the changes in money market operations were announced hurriedly in a late-evening press release.But Mr Trichet took care last week to leave open the possibility of emergency co-ordinated interest rate cuts - without giving away the element of surprise - and appears to have won strong backing for a rate cut on the 21-strong governing council. Axel Weber, Germany's Bundesbank president - usually among the ECB's more "hawkish" policymakers - said central banks had sent a clear signal "that they will do everything to prevent a further escalation of financial crisis". He appears to have agreed that if ever a risk management approach was justified, this was the moment.In turn, that reflected the much gloomier view that the ECB has taken in recent days on eurozone economic prospects: it now expects growth to remain weak well into next year, with the chances high of a technical recession - two quarters of falling gross domestic product. Inflation should fall as a result.In line with the ECB's new strategy, Mr Trichet has urged banks to overcome their nervousness and not to overestimate risks prevalent in the financial system. Market tensions eased a little yesterday. Financial markets, however, deemed further monetary policy easing necessary and priced in further interest rate cuts in November or December.Economists see the eurozone as less responsive to monetary policy shocks than the US, so logically under a risk management approach the ECB would cut interest rates much further. Julian Callow at Barclays Capital says: "If you had a bunch of US academics at the ECB, my guess is that they would be urging it to slash rates . . maybe even below 2 per cent. But I doubt the ECB will go that far

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...